主講人：Stephen Chiou （Professor,Faculty of Business and Economics, the University of Hongkong ）
題目：A Demographic Theory of Reform 時間：2013年11月20日（周三）下午3:00-4:30
地點：學院五樓會議室
Abstract
This paper explores the role of population structure and dynamic in determining the choice of economic reform strategies. It is motivated by economic reform experiences in China, which pursued a gradual approach, and Russia, which pursued a big bang approach. At the beginning of reforms, the Chinese population was much younger and, despite its birth control policy, has continued growing in the next half century, with 40 percent increase in size; whereas the Russian population was much older, peaked soon, and has since remained stagnant. The investment nature of reform---pain now, gain later---suggests that demographic structure and dynamic like those in China might bestow the government with a lot of leeway for manipulation (a corollary being that a self-interested government may use the leeway for procrastination). In the absence of such demographic conditions, a benevolent government may find it necessary to commit to reform through a big bang.
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